The GAA took a significant step towards a split season Wednesday night when there was significant support for its introduction at a meeting of the Fixtures Review Task Force. n recent weeks, the GPA, CPA and GAA president John Horan all gave their backing to a model which would separate club from county activity. And that momentum continued on Wednesday night's call with the idea to be explored further in the coming weeks and months. However, it's unlikely any changes to the calendar will come into effect before the 2022 season. It's understood that one of the proposals that will be examined is akin to the one put forward by the GPA, which would see the county season run over 23 weeks and wrapped up in July. Horan has already expressed a preference for a model that front-loads county activity into the start of the year with the clubs taking over thereafter. Any proposal for change will have to be put before counties for approval at next year's Annual congress. The fixtures calendar, and the fall out from it, has been an ongoing issue for the GAA.
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Many pundits assert the unlikelihood of this, noting that such sales would decrease bond prices and thus the value of China's own US Treasury holdings. But the impact on US interest rates does not need to come from a wholesale "liquidation" by China; rather, since all prices are determined at the margin, decreased demand or increased supply (sales) from China, even if seemingly insignificant, may raise rates. If the trade war turns to financial warfare tactics, both sides are more likely to receive recession than resolution.
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Why Trump Will Likely Continue the Trade War
Some argue that President Trump is actually in favor of free trade but wishes to renegotiate various trade treaties. That is, by embracing protectionist policies, free trade can later be broadened on more "appropriate" terms. For example, some of the stated NAFTA renegotiation objectives included the elimination of "unfair subsidies, market-distorting practices by state owned enterprises, and burdensome restrictions on intellectual property. " 3 But this interpretation is contrary to significant evidence that indicts Trump as a devoted protectionist. Trump's overall political philosophy is revealed by his pre-presidential talk show confessions. The future president hit the talk show circuit extensively in the 1980s and 1990s, appearing on the shows of David Letterman, Oprah Winfrey, Phil Donahue, and Larry King. These interviews provide an insightful look into his core beliefs. Consistently, his most passionate commentary concerned foreign nations "taking advantage" of the US—either by failing to contribute more to their own national defense or by running significant trade surpluses (so, US trade deficits).
In these interviews Trump usually directed his ire over trade surpluses at Japan given the time. Today the target is China. Trump clearly views trade in a zero-sum, mercantilist manner, with the country possessing a deficit "losing" and "down. " In mid-2019, the president tweeted the following:
When a country…is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good…when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don't trade anymore-we win big. It's easy. 4
Four other facts buttress President Trump's position as an ardent protectionist. First, protectionism is theoretically consistent with his immigration position. If one believes that immigrants take away American jobs, then logically one would also fear cheaper foreign goods which destroy the profitability of American companies—and by extension cost US workers their jobs. Second, although the protectionist measures enacted so far have been focused on China, they have also, to a lesser extent, been levied against allies (e. g., Canada, Europe, etc.
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Before coronavirus and impeachment, the Sino-American trade war stubbornly remained on the mainstream news circuit while largely governing the direction of financial markets. With each rumor of concession or tweet of condemnation, stocks gyrated and bonds jittered. Each round of negotiation was matched by salvos of tariffs, export controls, lawsuits, complaints, declarations, and threats. At its peak, the US imposed tariffs on $550 billion of Chinese imports while China retaliated with tariffs on $185 billion of U. S. goods. 1
With its early 2018 inception, many mainstream pundits and commentators agreed with President Trump that the trade war would be beneficial (or at least benign) and short (otherwise it would not be "easy to win"). 2 But the trade war, albeit in fits and starts, continued, escalated, and now largely sits in stalemate—despite the "Phase One" agreement—with no resolution clearly visible. Even with the recent reprieve, the trade war will likely continue for the foreseeable future with great risk to economies and financial markets.
Earlier this year, the CPA withdrew from the task force, claiming it was "a Trojan Horse, designed to give cover to the GAA authorities to ratify the status quo while having the appearance of consultation and thoughtful deliberation. " However, circumstances have changed significantly it now appears a calendar that separates county action from club is a step closer to becoming a reality. Online Editors
This applies to both intraregime circles (leadership struggles) and to the government vis-à-vis the populace. The former is exacerbated by the pageantry and intrigue of next year's communist party centenary. The latter is intensified by leadership's keen sensitivity to Chinese society's long-held belief in the "Mandate of Heaven" (the loss of which is frequently signaled by heaven through such natural disasters as epidemics—especially untimely given both the onset of coronavirus and the perception of an inept government response). The holistic negotiating style, or zhengti guannian, is a well-known and often frustrating exercise for any Westerner having done business in China. As described in a Harvard Business Review article,
the Chinese think in terms of the whole while Americans think sequentially and individualistically, breaking up complex negotiation tasks into a series of smaller issues: price, quantity, warranty, delivery, and so forth. Chinese negotiators tend to talk about those issues all at once, skipping among them, and, from the Americans' point of view, seemingly never settling anything.